With the advent of X, what will be the future of the RDBMS?
In 1995 it was "with the advent of data blades and the illustra database - it is a matter of time before the RDBMS is dead dead dead". As it happened, the RDBMS subsumed the importantly relevant functionality of the "object" database and you don't see any "we are just object relational database" anymore.
Around the same time it was "with the advent of the internet, it is a matter of time before the RDBMS is dead dead dead". Not that the internet was or is a 'database' in the classic sense, but it was confused for one.
Similarly, when TEXT started making a big explosion - text was going to take over. Just store documents. Didn't really happen - what did happen is the text functionality was moved into - the RDBMS...
Again - OLAP becomes really big, huge - at the end of the 20th century. Guess what happened? Again.
XML - XML was going to kill the RDBMS - it was as good as dead. And now where are we again with that?
What I've seen happen again and again and again is that when something truly useful database wise evolves - so evolves the RDBMS. There are lots of fresh starts that get subsumed over time. There are many things in the database right now that you need over time and that would take a long time to re-invent. And remember (this is important), these specialized databases are just that - specialized. They are not general purpose - they are very good at what they do - but they do not do it for everyone. And they will end up being abused (just like XML, and all 'technologies' like that have been) and over used, used in the wrong place.
So, what I think we'll see is the feature set of the two merge into one (again). The truly useful aspects of one will combine with the other - making something larger.
And remember also, most people are not building facebook, they are building reservation systems, tracking systems, hr systems, finance systems, order entry systems, banking systems, etc - things where transactions are sort of important (lose my status update - no big deal, lose my $100 transfer and I'm sort of mad). There is room for a lot of things out there.
